New Analysis: End of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for 45,000 Salvadorans Living in California, Including Almost 8,000 in the Bay Area, Will Come with Big Economic Impacts
Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for El Salvador is set to expire today, ending work authorization for beneficiaries who have no other legal basis to work in the United States. A new analysis from the Bay Area Council Economic Institute finds that California is more exposed to this shift than any other state in the nation, with an estimated 45,205 Salvadoran TPS holders statewide who could lose their ability to work legally overnight.
That population represents 26% of the roughly 173,000 Salvadorans nationally who hold TPS – nearly double the number in Texas, the next-largest state, and more than Texas and Maryland combined. An estimated 35,000 of California’s Salvadoran TPS holders are currently employed, earning a combined $1.36 billion in annual wages.
In the Bay Area, almost 8,000 Salvadorans are included in the modeled TPS population. About 78% are employed, accounting for at least $385 million in annual wages.
“This isn’t an abstract policy debate – it’s construction crews, care homes and kitchens across California that could lose experienced workers overnight,” said analysis author Abby Raisz, Vice President of Research for the Bay Area Council Economic Institute.
Key findings:
- Concentrated impact: Nearly 6 in 10 of California’s Salvadoran TPS holders live in Los Angeles County (26,548 people, accounting for $698 million in annual wages), with additional concentrations in the Inland Empire, the Bay Area, and the Central Valley.
- An experienced, hard-to-replace workforce: The average age of employed Salvadoran TPS holders in California is 51, reflecting a workforce built over 25 years since El Salvador first received TPS in 2001.
- Three distinct exposure channels by region:
- In Los Angeles County, an estimated 4,634 Salvadoran TPS holders work in construction (about 23% of the county’s employed Salvadoran TPS population), with thousands more in administrative/waste management and other services.
- In San Mateo County, health care (505 workers) and education (388 workers) together account for roughly 40% of the county’s employed Salvadoran TPS holders.
- In San Bernardino County, logistics (364 workers) and manufacturing (344 workers) together make up 40% of the county’s employed Salvadoran TPS population.
- Broader economic ripple effects: Beyond the direct wage exposure, the Economic Institute notes that reduced household spending among affected workers would ripple into demand for local, neighborhood-level businesses statewide.
Methodology: Estimates use 2024 ACS microdata from IPUMS USA and a conservative proxy for Salvadoran TPS holders based on birthplace, citizenship, arrival year and likely legal status. Results are modeled estimates – not administrative counts.
