New Poll Shows Path to Victory for Regional Transit Measure the Council is Leading

With just three months to go before the November election, a new poll of likely voters across five Bay Area counties shows a regional measure to save public transit has a clear path to victory this November. The new poll numbers released today shows the measure begins with majority support that grows with clear messaging about what’s at stake for Bay Area transit, underscoring both the strong public recognition of the importance of transit and the work ahead to pass the measure this November.

The survey, conducted by EMC Research among 1,700 likely voters across Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties, found 54% support for a five-county sales tax to provide long-term operations funding for major Bay Area transit agencies and support regional projects to strengthen transit throughout the Bay Area.

The research also found that support increases to 58% after voters learn more about the severe consequences of failing to protect Bay Area transit service. To pass, the regional transit measure needs a majority vote across the entire population of the five Bay Area counties this November. 

This poll comes on the heels of the Connect Bay Area campaign officially qualifying a regional transit measure for the November 2026 ballot built on one of the largest grassroots transit organizing efforts the region has ever seen and unprecedented support from business, labor, and community organizations across the Bay Area.

The polling found voters are most motivated by understanding what the Bay Area stands to lose if the measure fails. Messages explaining the scale of potential service reductions, worsening traffic congestion, and impacts on workers, students, seniors and people with disabilities were the most persuasive across the region.

Among the strongest findings:

• 54% of likely voters support the measure on first ask, demonstrating majority support at the outset of the campaign.
• Support grows to 58% after voters hear about the consequences of failing to protect transit service.
• Voters are most persuaded by the prospect of major service cuts, increased traffic congestion, and the importance of maintaining transit access for working families, seniors, students and people with disabilities.

Unprecedented Grassroots, Labor, and Business Support to Save Transit

The Connect Bay Area campaign has grown in support over the last several months with more than 100 elected officials and more than 115 labor, business, and advocacy organizations signing on in support. Major businesses from across the region helped raise more than $5.5 million to qualify the measure and prepare for the November election.

The regional transit measure will provide long-term operational funding for major Bay Area transit agencies while supporting projects to strengthen and better connect transit systems across the region. It will protect major transit agencies like BART, Muni, Caltrain and AC Transit from devastating service cuts, help VTA grow to better serve residents, workers, and businesses, and provide direct support to counties for transit improvements.

Without sustainable transit funding, the Bay Area could face catastrophic service reductions:

• BART: Up to 15 station closures, elimination of two lines, and service cuts of up to 70%
• Caltrain: Hourly train service, no weekend service, and weekday shutdowns after 9 p.m.
• Muni: At least 20 bus routes eliminated and service reductions of 30% or more
• AC Transit: Service cuts of at least 16%

The measure includes strong accountability and oversight provisions, including independent financial reviews for every transit operator, regional coordination requirements to ensure systems work better together, and a citizen oversight committee to monitor spending and performance. 

The measure also delivers critical funding directly to counties for transit transformation projects, including funding to restore service at VTA to increase frequency and expand the service its residents were promised. To learn more about and support the Connect Bay Area campaign, please contact Senior Vice President Emily Loper.