New Study: Mass Deportation Could Cost Bay Area Economy $67 Billion Annually
Report highlights critical role immigrants play across construction, hospitality, caregiving, and other essential industries
Mass deportation of the almost 500,000 undocumented immigrants who live and work in the Bay Area would deal a major blow to the region’s economy, potentially reducing economic output by as much as $67 billion annually, disrupting key industries, and eliminating billions in tax revenue that supports a wide range of critical public services, according to a new report released today (March 25) by the Bay Area Council Economic Institute in partnership with the San Francisco Foundation.
The report finds that undocumented immigrants play a vital role in the region’s labor force and economy, contributing across industries ranging from construction and hospitality to manufacturing, transportation, and caregiving. Removing those workers from the labor market would create significant labor shortages and ripple effects across the broader economy.
At the release event, report author and Economic Institute Vice President of Research Abby Raisz outlined key findings from the report during a program aboard the Historic Klamath that featured an engaging and informative discussion with San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie, SF Foundation CEO Fred Blackwell, Golden Gate Restaurant Association Executive Director Laurie Thomas, and Galeria de la Raza Executive Director Ani Rivera, and moderated by Jose Quiñonez, CEO, Mission Asset Fund. The Sobrato Organization CEO and Council Executive Committee member Tony Mestres also joined the conversation.
The report has already been featured in KQED, the San Francisco Chronicle, the San Francisco Business Times, NBC Bay Area, and the Mercury News, with more coverage to come.
“Our analysis shows that undocumented immigrants are deeply embedded in the Bay Area economy,” said report author Abby Raisz, Vice President of Research for the Bay Area Council Economic Institute. “Mass deportation would not simply shift jobs to other workers, it would shrink the region’s productive capacity, disrupt supply chains, and slow economic growth.”
The study points out how deeply interconnected the Bay Area economy is, with the impacts of immigration enforcement often extending well beyond the individuals directly affected, shaping behavior across entire workplaces, industries, and neighborhoods.
The Bay Area is home to an estimated 478,000 undocumented immigrants, many of whom have lived in the region for decades and are highly active in the workforce. Approximately 73% participate in the labor force, a higher rate than native-born residents. Undocumented workers are particularly concentrated in industries that employers already report difficulty staffing, including construction, hospitality and food service, health care and caregiving, and manufacturing and retail, among others.
In some sectors, undocumented immigrants make up a significant share of the workforce, including about 19% of administrative and building support jobs and more than 15% of accommodation and food service workers in the Bay Area.
Using economic modeling, the study estimates that removing undocumented workers from the regional economy would reduce output by up to $67 billion annually, or roughly 5–6% of the Bay Area’s total economic activity. These losses would include direct labor impacts as well as broader ripple effects across supply chains and consumer spending.
The report also finds that undocumented immigrants contribute significantly to public finances. Collectively, they generate more than $8.4 billion annually in federal, state, and local tax revenues, including income, sales, and property taxes that help fund schools, transportation, and other public services.
Beyond workforce impacts, the report highlights the broader effects on families and communities. Approximately 7% of Bay Area residents live in households that include an undocumented family member, and deporting the primary undocumented earner from these households would reduce average household income by nearly 69%, dramatically reducing spending and economic stability.
“This is a moment when we choose who we want to be as a region. The data tell us that mass immigration enforcement would tear holes in our workforce, our tax base, and our neighborhoods—but it doesn’t have to be that way,” said Fred Blackwell, CEO of the San Francisco Foundation. “Together, we can support policies that keep families together, fund community organizations that meet crises in real time, and stand firm against enforcement practices that destabilize our neighborhoods and economy.”
The study also notes that economic disruption can begin well before large-scale deportations occur. Increased enforcement activity and uncertainty can lead to worker absenteeism, reduced consumer spending, and delayed business investment.
“Immigrant workers — including undocumented workers — are essential to the functioning of the Bay Area economy,” the report concludes. “Policies that remove large portions of this workforce would weaken businesses, reduce economic output, and strain public finances across the region.”
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