New Analysis Finds Suisun Expansion Plan and Solano Shipyard Would Support Over 530,000 Jobs and Generate More Than $16.2 Billion Annually in State, Local, and Federal Tax Revenue
Bay Area Council Economic Institute report highlights unprecedented economic, fiscal, and strategic benefits for Solano County, California, and the nation, including $215 billion in direct construction investment
A new in-depth economic and fiscal impact analysis released today by the Bay Area Council Economic Institute (BACEI), in partnership with Blue Sky Consulting Group, finds that the proposed Suisun Expansion Plan and Solano Shipyard together represent one of the largest and most consequential economic development opportunities in California history—strengthening the state’s manufacturing base, addressing the housing shortage, and advancing national economic and maritime security.
According to the report, the two projects would generate $215 billion in direct construction investment, support over 530,000 jobs statewide at full buildout, and deliver more than $16.2 billion annually in combined state, local, and federal tax revenue once fully operational. The analysis evaluates both construction impacts over multiple decades and the sustained, long-term economic activity generated by new businesses and residents.
Transformational Economic Impact for Solano County and California
The Suisun Expansion Plan envisions a new, mixed-use community featuring 175,000 homes and more than 105 million square feet of commercial and industrial space, including the Solano Foundry, a 2,100-acre advanced manufacturing park that would be the largest of its kind in the United States. Over its 44-year construction period, the plan would support an average of more than 24,000 jobs annually, with construction workers earning roughly $108,000 in average annual compensation.
At full buildout, ongoing economic activity associated with the Suisun Expansion Plan would support approximately 459,000 jobs statewide, including 225,000 jobs within the plan area and 34,000 direct manufacturing jobs at the Solano Foundry. These jobs would pay, on average, 20 percent more than existing jobs in Solano County, providing a major source of middle-wage, family-sustaining employment.
The analysis finds that the Suisun Expansion Plan alone would generate $3.7 billion annually for California’s General Fund, $2.5 billion annually for local governments, and $8.3 billion annually in federal tax revenue at full buildout.
The proposed Solano Shipyard, located on 7,500 acres east of Collinsville already designated for industrial shipbuilding activities, would create one of the largest shipyard complexes in the world. Over its 30-year construction period, the shipyard would generate nearly $22 billion in construction spending, supporting an average of more than 4,100 jobs annually statewide. At full buildout, ongoing shipyard operations would support approximately 40,000 on-site jobs, with an additional 31,000 jobs created through supplier activity and household spending.
Once fully operational, the Solano Shipyard would generate an estimated $420 million annually for the State General Fund, $530 million for local governments, and $760 million in federal tax revenue.
Addressing Housing, Manufacturing, and Economic Resilience
The report emphasizes that the combined projects directly address several of California’s most pressing structural challenges: a severe housing shortage, stagnation in manufacturing employment, and growing economic vulnerability in regions experiencing major employer closures.
By co-locating large-scale housing development with advanced manufacturing and maritime industrial uses, the Suisun Expansion Plan removes one of the most significant barriers to industrial growth in California—the lack of nearby, affordable workforce housing. This integrated approach enables job creation that represents truly new economic activity, rather than the displacement or reshuffling of existing jobs.
The timing of these investments is especially critical for Solano County, which is facing the closure of major employers including Anheuser-Busch and Valero. The report finds that the scale of new job creation and tax revenue from the Suisun Expansion Plan and Solano Shipyard would more than offset recent and anticipated economic losses, while providing a more stable and diversified fiscal foundation for local communities.
Strategic Importance for the State and Nation
Beyond their regional impact, the projects carry significant statewide and national strategic importance. California has not added net new manufacturing jobs since 2010, even as other states have aggressively captured new investment. The Solano Foundry and Solano Shipyard would help reverse that trend by anchoring a new generation of advanced manufacturing and maritime production in the Northern California megaregion.
At the national level, the Solano Shipyard directly aligns with renewed federal efforts to restore U.S. shipbuilding capacity and reduce reliance on foreign shipyards—an objective increasingly viewed as essential to economic security and national defense.
Leadership Perspectives
“This analysis shows just how consequential these projects could be for California’s economic future,” said Jeff Bellisario, Executive Director of the Bay Area Council Economic Institute. “Together, the Suisun Expansion Plan and Solano Shipyard address three of the state’s biggest challenges at once—housing affordability, middle-wage job creation, and long-term economic competitiveness—while generating substantial and sustained public revenues for decades to come.”
John Grubb, Interim President and CEO of the Bay Area Council, added: “California and the nation are at an inflection point. These projects would position Solano County and the Bay Area as leaders in advanced manufacturing and maritime innovation, while delivering the kind of large-scale housing production and economic resilience our state urgently needs. The magnitude of the benefits outlined in this report underscores why these proposals matter not just locally, but statewide and nationally.”
About the Report
The Suisun Expansion Plan and Solano Shipyard: Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis was prepared by the Bay Area Council Economic Institute and Blue Sky Consulting Group using IMPLAN economic modeling and project-specific construction and operations assumptions. All dollar figures are reported in 2025 dollars.
